The situation
Your starting point
You start in 2016 with a scaled South African fleet dominated by coal, alongside a little nuclear, diesel, wind and solar power. Much of the coal equipment is already decades old.
Over the scenario, coal availability falls as breakdowns outpace repairs. Waiting leaves you with less usable power and a growing need for expensive emergency fuel. Replacement plants take time to finish.
The choices
What will you do?
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Build against declining output
Plan around the coal fleet's available power, not its nameplate capacity. Each drop in output leaves more work for the rest of your system.
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Use diesel deliberately
Emergency generation can keep customers supplied, but fuel purchases quickly consume cash. Decide what it should bridge and when that bridge should end.
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Make the replacement last
Choose a mix that covers demand throughout the day and stays affordable to operate. Avoid replacing one concentrated vulnerability with another.
Put your plan to the test
Can your new capacity arrive faster than the old fleet loses its ability to deliver?
Build, watch what happens, and try a different approach. The grid is yours to run.
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The End of an Era
Your company's coal plants are getting old. Their replacements need years to build, and competitors are ready to take the customers you lose.
Explore scenario -
The River Runs Dry
A full reservoir makes the opening years look comfortable. An El Niño drought will test a grid built around the Zambezi.
Explore scenario -
Carbon Fee
Coal helped build your company. Now every tonne of emissions comes with a bill, and replacing the old fleet will take time and money.
Explore scenario